Western Conference 2008-09 Breakdown

With the full North American NHL season about to open up later this week, it’s about time to continue the predictions and breakdowns. Let’s just jump right into the Western Conference.

Central Division

#1 – Detroit Red Wings – If it was possible for this team to get better than the team that dominated its way to the Stanley Cup last season, they found a way. Marian “Judas” Hossa turned down a long-term deal with the Penguins to sign a one-year deal with the Red Wings.

Sounds like a guy desperate for a ring to me, but that’s his own prerogative.

Also new to the mix is the backup goaltender from the runner-up Pens in Ty Conklin. I don’t necessarily agree with this move. The Wings have a great young goaltender in the farm who is probably ready to at least be a backup in Jimmy Howard.

The absence of the now once again retired Dominik Hasek freed up a roster spot for Conklin who can expect to get between 15-20 starts behind the aging Chris Osgood. If Osgood gets hurt and the load falls on Conklin and Howard, the Red Wings might be vulnerable. Outside of that, expect another near wire to wire division title and long playoff run.

#2 Chicago Blackhawks – I’m surprising myself with this one too. However, with the young core on this team and a solid goalie in net this doesn’t seem too farfetched.

Sensations, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp are back to terrorize the league. The Hawks signed Cristobal Huet in the free agent market and have placed last season’s starter Nikolai Khabibulin on waivers. Expect him to be moved or bought out soon.

They also brought in free agent defenseman Brian Campbell who decided to take the money and run from the Sharks.

Young teams are dangerous in the new NHL and in this incredibly weak division, Chicago fans may once again be reminded of what hockey is.

#3 – Nashville Predators – There are a lot of question marks with this team this year. Alexander Radulov is gone. So are Marek Zidlicky, Martin Gelinas, Darcy Hordichuk, Jan Hlavac and goaltender Chris Mason.

What they were able to do is lock up Shea Weber and Ryan Suter who will now patrol the blue line for years to come. Not a bad move, but can this team rebound with the loss of all the guys listed above?

Dan Ellis will be the main man in goal this season and if something happens to him, rookie Pekka Rinne will have to step up.

The Preds shocked me last year by making the playoffs with a depleted roster, but I don’t think we’re going to be experiencing déjà vu this Spring.

#4 – Columbus Blue Jackets – The Jackets made a ton of offseason moves and on paper have a much improved team over last year’s squad.

The problem here is the guys they landed aren’t exactly A-quality players. The best move they made was acquiring Raffi Torres from the Oilers.

The also added Christian Backman, Fedor Tyutin, Mike Commodor, R.J. Umberger and Kristian Huselius.

The Rangers won’t lose sleep over the loss of Tyutin, but Backman could be a very solid physical defenseman. Commodore is another good signing and Umberger and Huselius will need to prove that their success wasn’t just a fluke due to the lines they were on in Philadelphia and Calgary respectively.

The other question I’m having trouble with is about goaltender Pascal Leclaire. He put on a very good show last season and was a surprisingly good fantasy pickup for GAA and save percentage. Is he for real? Are the new acquisitions for real? Could this be the season that the Jackets make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history?

These guys could challenge for a playoff spot, but there will be no playoff hockey for the Jackets this year.

#5 - St. Louis Blues – Woof. It does not look good for the Blues at all this season. There is a youth movement going on and with any youth movement, there’s a learning curve of a couple seasons before you see results.

Welcome to the beginning of the youth movement in St. Louis.

Blues fans will have to wait another season to see defenseman Erik Johnson again, who tore two ligaments in his right knee in a freak golf accident.

The Blues were able to go out and sign Steve Bernier away from the Canucks and he should help contribute on the offensive side of things.

For this team to have any success whatsoever, Bernier, Keith Tkachuk and Paul Kariya are going to have to take the team under their wings. Don’t expect much in St. Louis this year, but looking down the road a couple years should make Blues fans smile.

Northwest Division

#1 – Vancouver Canucks – Is this the year the underachieving Canucks finally take a run at the Cup? Not sure, but I do see them winning this wide open division.

The major knock against this team was the lack of offense they had. Basically if you scored 3 goals and some could argue even 2, you would win against these guys.

They are going to be without Markus Naslund who left for Broadway, Brendan Morrison and Trevor Linden.

At the draft they snagged Kyle Wellwood away from Toronto in a brilliant move. This kid is going to be a stud in the league for years to come. They also added veteran Pavol Demitra to the mix. If Demitra can stay healthy, he’s a proven scorer and could ignite some more guys to get in on the act.

The best aspect of this team is their defense and especially in net with Roberto Luongo. Look, Luongo is a fantastic goalie, but he needs help. If the Canucks can find the back of the net, Luongo can lead them to the promised land.

#2 – Edmonton Oilers – This was one of the busiest teams in the league during the summer. They acquired a major threat on the blue line in Lubomir Visnovsky from the Kings. To make room for Visnovsky, the Oilers shipped Joni Pitkanen to Carolina for Erik Cole and sent Torres was sent to Columbus for Brule.

They are returning with a young core of guys including Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky who will need to continue to put up big numbers.

Sheldon Souray is returning from an injury plagued season and I would think he would play with Visnovsky. I’d be afraid to skate into the zone with those two on the ice. Seriously, keep your head up.

A lot of people are taking these guys to win the division. I’m not totally sold yet, but I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen so far.

#3 – Calgary Flames – I’m not so sure about the moves they made this summer. They allowed guys like Eric Godard, Owen Nolan and Alex Tanguay to get away.

They then went out and got Mike Cammalleri Curtis Glencross nd Rene Bourque. I like those acquisitions for the most part and thought they were on a war path to the division title.

They follow this up by adding in glassjaw Andre Roy and inexplicably go out and sign Todd Bertuzzi. I don’t understand the Bertuzzi move at all considering we are only a few years removed from one of the most horrific moments in NHL history, which ironically happened between two teams in this division. Now he’s back in the division with a different squad.

Anyway, the Flames do have one of the better goaltenders in the league in Miikka Kiprusoff. However, Kipper has looked a little old over the last couple seasons. Maybe it’s the lack of consistency the team has shown that’s getting to him, but we’ll see.

It will be up to Jarome Iginla to spark the team and if the new guys step up and produce, this is another team that could win the division.

#4 Minnesota Wild – This is kind of low for a playoff team from last season, I know. However, these guys lost some very key guys and are on the verge of losing another.

Gone are forwards Brian Rolston and Demitra. Mark Parrish is also gone after being bought out. The one guy who may be on his way out? Marian Gaborik. The Wild and Gaborik are trying to get a long-term extension worked out and if that doesn’t happen expect a blockbuster trade to happen sooner than later.

If Gaborik leaves town, that would mean the entire top line from last year is gone and a big chunk of the second line is gone as well.

The new additions of Nolan and Antti Miettinen from Dallas will help, but they’re not Demitra, Rolston and Gaborik.

This is shaping up to be a bad season for the Wild, but I didn’t expect them to do as well as they did last year either. Maybe they’ll do it again, but it’s going to be very tough.

#5 Colorado Avalanche – This is a team that just keeps getting older and as a result it’s going to be a long year in Denver.

Joe Sakic has returned and the team brought in Darcy Tucker from Toronto. They also locked up defenseman John-Michael Liles to a long-term deal. Those moves are solid and all, but what did they do to help the biggest weakness being goaltending?

Not a whole lot.

Peter Budaj will be the number one guy and he’s either on or he’s not. They lost Jose Theodore to the Capitals and replaced him with Andrew Raycroft. Razor was basically exiled from Toronto after his sub-par play with his big contract and is looking for another fresh start. I wouldn’t expect to see these guys in the playoffs, but stranger things have happened I suppose.

Pacific Division

#1 – Dallas Stars – Fresh off a Western Conference Finals appearance, the Stars are back and are poised to make another deep playoff run.

The Stars made a somewhat peculiar move in letting Miettinen walk and replaced him with super agitator Sean Avery.

Brad Richards was acquired at the trade deadline for goaltender Mike Smith and was a pleasant surprise during the stretch run and playoffs for Dallas. Now that he’s had a chance to play with the club and get used to his new surroundings, look for a big year out of Richards.

Mike Modano and Jere Lehtinen are another year older, but bring a veteran presence that you can’t put a price tag on. This division is the polar opposite of the Northwest, which is wide open due to mediocrity. The Pacific is wide open because there are 3 powerhouse teams and any one of them is deserving of this No. 1 spot.

#2 – San Jose Sharks – I don’t think any team improved its defense more than the Sharks this summer. I’m still in awe of what they were able to get.

They had Campbell who they got at the trade deadline. I was a bit puzzled to see the Sharks just let him leave town and not lock him up. Then they go out and land veteran Rob Blake from the Kings.

In addition to Blake, the Sharks made a trade and landed fantasy stud Dan Boyle and Brad Lukowich from the Lightning. That’s 3 guys who will vastly improve this defense and could very well shake the playoff curse that hangs over the Shark Tank.

Evgeni Nabokov proved he is a workhorse last season starting 77 out of 82 games last season and winning 46 of them. Maybe this time around the Sharks will tone his load back a little to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

Should that happen and Joe Thornton continue to light the way for the Sharks, this could be the year they give Stanley a tan.

#3 – Anaheim Ducks – At face value, this is the exact same team as last year’s roster. The only major acquisition was Morrison from the Canucks.

However, last season both Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer delayed retirement and joined the team late in the season. This time around, both are signed and ready to go on opening night. They’ll have their skating legs under them and regardless of what they have in the tank still, you know they will produce.

Jean-Sebastien Giguere is once again the main guy between the pipes and I must say, a very solid fantasy choice. He finished last season with 35 wins in 58 games with a 2.12 GAA and .922 save percentage. You’d be crazy not to pick him in your drafts.

Either way, the Ducks have a ton of young talent with Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and former number-two draft pick Bobby Ryan. Ryan should be on the opening night roster and if the hype about him is correct, he could make a huge impact.

#4 – Phoenix Coyotes – The Fighting Gretzky’s just missed out on the playoffs last season and could very well be in the hunt again this year. The biggest problem for them is that they’re in a division with the Stars, Sharks and Ducks.

The Coyotes improved by subtraction this offseason. Gone are defensemen Keith Ballard and Nick Boynton, both dealt to Florida for Olli Jokinen.

I absolutely loved this move. Jokinen figures to be a top line player and they unloaded two defensemen, who are average at best. Yes, they’re physical guys but I would have done the same thing to get Jokinen.

The other move that could end up looking more brilliant than it was last season, is the signing of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov who will need to be solid once again for this team to have a shot.

#5 Los Angeles Kings – Well, the good? Anze Kopitar, Alexander Frolov, Patrick O’Sullivan and Dustin Brown are a very nice core to have. Defensemen Jack Johnson is also a nice commodity to have on you team, even with how young he is.

The bad? That’s about all that’s on this team. Rob Blake and Visnovsky are gone from the top defense pairing, another scoring threat in Cammalleri is also gone and they have no goaltending to speak of. Jonathan Bernier is still a year away or so, but unless he gets a defense to play in front of him, it will be a rough go of it.

Jason Labarbera and Erik Ersberg may not be bad goaltenders on paper. However, there’s a saying that a goalie is only as good as his defense. In this case, these guys are in trouble.

Baring a miracle of Biblical proportions, the only thing the Kings will be battling for in the Spring is the No. 1 draft pick.

Second Round Analysis

The second round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs gets underway tonight and I couldn't be happier about it.

We had a couple of surprises in the first round that are worth mentioning. First off congrats to the Boston Bruins for showing some fight and forcing a Game 7 after bing down 3-1 in the series. There seems to be a bright future in Boston and they have nothing to hang their heads about.

Secondly, what was up with the Anaheim Ducks? Of course it's harder than ever to repeat as champs now, but the effort just didn't seem to consistently be there against the Stars. The two games they actually showed up for they won and the second of which they were still badly outshot.

Lastly, we learned that assembling a Stanley Cup champion team from several years ago might actually be a good move after all. The Colorado Avalanche looked pretty good against the defensive minded Minnesota Wild and Jose Theodore was brilliant between the pipes.

With that said, let's take a look at how my predictions from the first round went.

I nailed the Eastern Conference dead on and even hit the exact amount of games correctly in the Philadelphia/Washington series. Out west was a different story where I went 2/4 giving me a grand total of 6 out of 8 correct picks. Not too shabby I suppose. Since I hit the East dead on, I feel obligated to defend the playoff pool picks, so without further ado here's my analysis and predictions for the second round in both conferences.

Eastern Conference

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

Rather than use the old format of why each wins and such I'll just do this quick hitter style.

The Flyers will be without veteran leader and one of their top scorers in Mike Knuble who went down in Game 5 against the Caps with a partially torn hamstring. According to TSN.ca, Knuble is working to get back on the ice for this series, but it's going to depend on how quickly he heals. Without him it's going to be tough for the Flyers to knock off the top team in the East.

Carey Price nearly made me look like a genius. If you'll recall, in the Eastern Conference breakdown I did I said the reason the Habs wouldn't win would be because of this kid. He nearly proved me right too. He looked solid in net for the first four games of the series. Then Games 5 and 6 he might not have been able to stop a beachball as he gave up 10 goals in two games. As a Pens fan I started cheering for Boston to win Game 7 so we'd play them in the next round. Price settled down and the Habs won 5-0 in a game where the scoreboard doesn't reflect how close the game was.

The key for the Habs in this series is that Price cannot have a funk like this again if the Habs are going to make a deep run. They should win this series rather easily as they are a more deep team than the Caps were and are just as fast if not faster.

For the Flyers, they are going to have to suffocate their opponent in the defensive end. They did a good job of limiting the damage Alexander Ovechkin and Co. did against them and that's why they prevailed in the series. They have a decisive edge when you look at physicality and will have to jump on the Habs early by hitting anything that moves to make their forwards think twice about touching the puck. If they can do that the Flyers might have a chance at the upset.

Bottom Line: The Canadiens looked vulnerable at times against the Bruins, but I don't think the Flyers are the team who can exploit those weaknesses and win four games from it. If Price stays sharp this is over quick. Canadiens win in 5.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 New York Rangers

Did I predict this would happen? Yes. Am I happy it turned out this way? I don't know. As a Pens fan I much rather would have seen the Caps or Bruins who played very tough and demanding seven game series and I think we could have easily skated past both of them as we're well rested after a quick sweep of the Sens.

The Rangers looked impressive against the Devils in their first round series, but I question just how good they were. I really think it would have been a much longer series than five games had Martin Brodeur not allowed about 7 soft goals that come to mind. Specifically Game 1 where he inexplicably left a puck sitting a foot from the goal-line in his crease thinking that the Rangers' player skating by was a teammate only to see it end up in the back of his net. Brodeur looked awful for most of this series and awful goaltending does not win you games in the playoffs.

The Devils aside, the Rangers have been a much improved team down th stretch and so far in the playoffs than they were for most of the season. Henrik Lundqvist appears to have returned to the Vezina Trophy form we all knew he was capable of, but the big question that looms in this series is can their defense slow down the speedy Penguins? If they can the Rangers could win this series.

For the Penguins this comes down to one key. Don't let Sean Avery have his way on the ice. This guy should be inducted into the Pests In Sports Hall Of Fame. The Penguins cannot take stupid penalties because they are frustrated with Sean Avery. The Devils did it and were gone in five games.

The Pens have a much deeper team on offense and have a much different team than the one the Rangers saw throughout the season eight times. They are a healthy bunch with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin scoring points at will it seems like. Marian Hossa was amazing in the first round even if he doesn't have the point total to show that. He's been buzzing around the net and eventually that will pay off. Also, Marc-Andre Fleury looks like an entirely different goalie than he did even before he had the high-ankle sprain. He's been fantastic down the stretch and so far in the playoffs. He will need to keep it up and know that JAGR ONLY SHOOTS FROM THE RIGHT FACE-OFF DOT. THAT'S IT! THAT'S THE ONLY PLACE HE EVER SHOOTS FROM! BE AWARE OF IT!

I honestly don't know how the scouting report on Jagr doesn't say that exact same thing. It boggles my mind how teams let him shoot from there all day long. He did it in Pittsburgh too. It's always been his "spot."

Bottom line: Jagr returns to Pittsburgh for the first time in the playoffs and will see his arch enemy Hal Gill. Think I'm joking? Few years back Jagr publicly admitted that he hates playing against Gill because his big frame shuts him down. There will be no rust factor that will give either side an edge. Both sides have had long layoffs and are anxious to get back on the ice. To me, the Penguins have too much firepower and are playing their best hockey of the season. There's a reason they're the division champs and it will show in this series. This next line is for Gopher. Pray Marek Malik doesn't make an appearance in this series or you and your Rangers will be weeping. Penguins win in 7.

Western Conference

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche

A month or so ago I did up a post on first round nightmare scenarios. This is the series I picked involving the Red Wings. Granted it didn't happen in the first round, but even if you're not a fan of these teams you have to be jacked up about this series.

This series will get nasty and get nasty very quick. To say these two teams loathe each other would be an understatement. I don't particularly think either side has as much physical presence as they did for their first few playoff match-ups, but the Wings have guys like Chris Chelios who like to bring the pain so everyone is going to have to keep their head on a swivel.

For the Avalanche to pull off the upset, they are going to need Jose Theodore to steal a couple games. He did it against the Wild and might just be playing the best hockey we've seen him play since his days in Montreal. Guys like Milan Hejduk and Paul Stastny are going to need to step up big time in this series and the Avs d-corps is going to have to figure out a way to slow down Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg.

For the Wings it starts and ends in net. Hasek was brutal in Games 3 and 4 and Mike Babcock wasted no time in going to Chris Osgood who played well in the final two games of the series. I haven't trusted this goaltending duo since day one this year and I'm still suspect of how those old bones are holding up after a total of 88 games so far this season.

The only way I see the Wings losing this series is if they beat themselves or get too wrapped up in the rivalry and start taking unnecessary shots at the Avs.

Bottom Line The Wings are too good of a team for the Avs to handle. As much as I'd like to pick the Avalanche to win this series to further fuel the rivalry, I just can't do it. The Wings have more firepower up front and have a veteran defensive corps led by Nick Lidstrom who's once again up for the Norris Trophy. Wings win in 6.

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #5 Dallas Stars

Now I'm torn on this one. On the one hand I picked San Jose to win the Stanley Cup this year. On the other you have a team that dispatched the defending champs in rather easy fashion. This is a tough one.

The Stars finally snapped out of whatever funk they were in down the stretch and made the Ducks look silly in their series. I will say this though, had they lost Game 6 at home, I wouldn't be sitting here typing about the Stars. There is no way they win Game 7 in Anaheim. None.

Anyway, Marty Turco wasn't brilliant in net, but he didn't have to be. When your team puts up 4-5 goals a game you can afford to give up a goal or two. He will have to be spectacular against the Sharks or the Stars will ride off into the Texas sunset.

For the Sharks it's very simple. Take the lessons learned against Calgary and apply them to the Stars. The big wake-up call in this series was Game 3. San Jose chased Kipper from the net with three goals in under four minutes of play only to see the Flames storm back and win.

Going down 2-1 in the series right then and there and then coming back to eventually win in seven games is the kind of adversity championship teams have to overcome. They earned the right to be in the second round and it's time to prove that they belong.

Jonathan Cheechoo may not have even combined over the last two years to equal his single season goal mark of 56 in 2005-06 and if he has it's gotta be real close, but he showed signs of life against the Flames. The big question for the Stars is can they contain Joe Thornton. San Jose's offense more or less starts and stops with Big Joe. If the Stars limit his chances and get sticks and bodies in his passing lanes, they could pull this off.

Bottom Line: If I hadn't taken the Sharks to win the cup I'd be picking the Stars in this series. The Sharks have underachieved every time they are a favorite or a Cup contender and eventually that will come back to haunt them and me. Sharks win in 6.