Eastern Conference 2008-09 Breakdown

Well a new season is upon us finally. As you all know, I’m a Penguins fan so that’s why you haven’t heard from me in a couple months.

I spent the summer in seclusion searching for answers on how to get over the sting of seeing the Stanley Cup paraded around on our home ice. What I came up with is that NHL 09 is the greatest hockey game ever created. Seriously, if you haven’t played it yet go get it.

Until that came out I did my very best to avoid all things hockey to try and forget that series with Detroit even happened. The girlfriend tried to offer condolences, but there’s not much worse of a feeling than seeing your team come that close only to come up short.

Now that the season officially begins this weekend and with the pain almost fully subsided, it’s time to look ahead and see how this season may turn out. I’m going to try something different this year and go by each division and rank the teams in the division.

Let’s start in the Eastern Conference:

Northeast Division

#1 Montreal Canadiens – The defending regular season Eastern Conference champs are back with some new toys. The Habs were able to bring in very solid scorers in Alex Tanguay and Robert Lang. They also added tough guy Georges Laraque in a move I as a Pens fan wish would not have happened.

In net, Carey Price returns as the number one guy after taking a stranglehold on the job last year. They also have a capable backup in Jaroslav Halak so there shouldn’t be as many question marks in net this season.

With a playoff run under Price’s belt there’s no question the Habs are the favorite to win this division.

#2 Ottawa Senators – This might be a sucker’s bet considering how well they’ve done over the past couple seasons. The vicious cycle may once again repeat, but when you have guys like Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza in a weak conference, it’s not a bad pick.

One thing that has changed with Ottawa is the defense corps. Jason Smith comes to town to fill the void left by Wade Redden who bolted to Broadway. Also new to the team are Filip Kuba and Alexandre Picard. I must say, I’m still not shaking in my boots about that defense and it still leaves a lot of questions to be answered.

The goaltending situation is still a bit of a mystery as well. Martin Gerber will no doubt be the number one guy, but with Ray Emery out of the picture Gerber might actually be able to focus on playing net and not worrying about Emery’s shenanigans. That can only be a good thing for a streaky goalie like Gerber.

#3 Buffalo Sabres – Yes, I’m serious. This team could very well turn heads this season. They have a very strong core of guys with Maxim Afinogenov, Thomas Vanek, Steve Bernier, Derek Roy and Jason Pomminville.

They brought in Craig Rivet and re-signed Teppo Numminen who is out to prove he’s still capable of playing at this level.

NEWSFLASH: The Sabres retained a highly valued free agent for once. Ryan Miller is locked up for another five years. Rejoice Sabres fans, things may be changing in Buffalo.

This is a team that missed the playoffs last season by four points. With a pretty solid defense corps and a maturing offense, this team could very well make the playoffs this season.

#4 Boston Bruins – Ok ok, I know they made the playoffs last season as the 8-seed and almost knocked off Montreal in the first round. It was a valiant effort. Really, it was. However, what did these guys do to improve the weakest areas of their team?

NOTHING.

Their defense is still atrocious and their goaltending situation isn’t much better. Granted Manny Fernandez is back, but if history repeats itself he’ll be out for the season by the end of October and the load will fall squarely on the sometimes broad shoulders of Tim Thomas.

Zdeno Chara is a great asset to have on offense, but he’s a major liability against the rush. He is a great player don’t get me wrong, but there’s other guys I would rather have who can actually skate.

A positive for this team though is who they did bring in. Michael Ryder has been an absolute stud in Montreal and will no doubt be productive in Boston. Another positive for the Bruins is that Patrice Bergeron is back and ready to go for opening night. His return will provide an emotional lift which could take this team places. Especially if they decide to bring in a top tier defenseman.

#5 Toronto Maple Leafs – Sorry Cheech, but even you know this is a forgone conclusion. As of right now, Mats Sundin still hasn’t decided if he wants to return for another season. My guess is if he needs the money, he’ll be back. If not, he’s heading home.

The Leafs do have a lot of young raw talent, but like the Penguins a few years back, it’s largely under developed. The next couple of seasons will be rough in Toronto, but the future is quite bright.

One positive is that Vesa Toskala is patrolling the crease. Don’t let his mediocre numbers from last season fool you. He has the ability to be an elite goalie in this league. He just needs a half decent team in front of him to do so. Seeing Bryan McCabe leave can’t help matters even though he’s been criticized for his defensive play and sometimes categorized as only an offensive defenseman.

Of all the decisions I had to make with this division this was the easiest by far.

Atlantic Division

#1 – Pittsburgh Penguins – Is this a homer pick? Of course there will be people out there who say that, but that’s fine. If you look at this team even with the injuries to two of our top defensemen in Ryan Whitney (foot surgery, out until at least December) and Sergei Gonchar (shoulder surgery, out just as long if not longer), they are still arguably the best team in the Eastern Conference.

I won’t go into particulars here because I just spent a ton of time working on a full season preview for the Pens for a couple different sites. You can find that article here.

#2 – New York Rangers – This one was a bit tougher for me to pick. The Rangers added some more offensive weapons, but in my mind they still need some solid defensemen. The addition of Wade Redden is nice, but he’s more offensive minded. Marc Staal is a solid young player, but it just seems to me that defense should have been a priority.

The defense was instantly improved with the departure of Marek Malik who was much maligned during his tenure in New York. (Just ask Gopher, he’ll tell you. In fact here’s a direct quote: “We would’ve been better if he was playing defense for the opponent during our power play... that way when he centered the puck in the defensive zone we could’ve benefitted.”

Goaltending may be an issue here and I highly stress the word “may.” I’ve been hearing and reading rumors that Henrik Lundqvist may have an undisclosed knee injury that may require surgery. According to Eklund, the Rangers may be in talks with the Blackhawks to acquire Nikolai Khabibulin who has just been placed on waivers. Stay tuned and hold your breath Ranger fans.

#3 –Philadelphia Flyers – If this team didn’t have as many injuries as they did last year, they could have easily finished second or third in the division. They are fresh off an Eastern Conference finals loss to the Penguins so you know these guys are not the laughing stock they were two years ago.

On defense Mike Rathje and Derian Hatcher are both on the long term injury list. That alone makes the defense corps better. The brought in Ossi Vaananen which can only help out as well.

Their offense should still be very productive and if Simon Gagne can stay healthy, these guys could be fighting for the division title.

The major question is whether or not Martin Biron is the real deal or not. I tend to think he is, which is why he’s also on the fantasy roster this season.

#4 New Jersey Devils – The major knock against this team last season was a lack of offense. So what did the Devils do in the offseason? Not much. They went out and brought back former New Jersey cup winners Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik.

Holik is coming off a 34 point (15G 19A) season and yes he played all 82 games. Granted it was with Atlanta, but I’m pretty sure they have Ilya Kovalchuk and had a guy named Marian “Judas” Hossa until the Pens landed him at the deadline.

The other factor I weighed in this decision is that Martin Brodeur is another year older. If you watch his games closely over the past couple years, you can see a change in his play. He’s still probably the best puck moving goalie in the league, but shots from the point seem to find twine more often now. He seems to be losing pucks in crowds more than he used to and you can see him get visibly rattled at times, which you never saw before.

They may still fight for a playoff spot despite this low ranking because I still feel that this is the best division in the Eastern Conference.

#5 New York Islanders – This team could turn heads. Could. Should the young core of players they have, led by Kyly Okposo, learn quickly and mesh together this group could fight for a playoff spot.

They added defenseman Mark Streit, which is a brilliant pick up. They also added gritty veteran Doug Weight to join Bill Guerin. The biggest problem for this team is that they lost one of their best scorers and one of their best two-way players in Miroslav Satan and Ruslan Fedotenko. Both went to Pittsburgh to play with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

The other question will be the health of goalie Rick DiPietro, who’s signed until the next century. DiPietro had hip surgery, again, and all eyes will be on him. If he can stay healthy, he has shown signs that he can carry a team.

There is a youth movement happening on the Island, but I still think they are a couple years away from contending.

Southeast Division

#1 Washington Capitals – The Caps are fresh off a playoff appearance and a division title. The first of many I’m sure for young Alexander the Great. They pushed the Flyers to seven games before bowing out in front of their own fans. There is a buzz in D.C. now about hockey that hasn’t been there for many many years.

As far as offseason moves go, the Caps didn’t do a whole lot. They locked up some of their younger players and core players to keep the team intact. The move that puzzles me the most is the goaltending situation.

At the trade deadline, the Caps dealt for Cristobal Huet from the Habs. This gave them two very capable goalies as Olaf Kolzig was already in town. For some reason unknown to me, both Huet and Kolzig left the nation’s capital and the Caps brought in Jose Theodore. Personally, I would have kept Huet as Theodore hasn’t been himself since he left Montreal.

The Caps on paper are the clear favorite to win this division again and the Penguins proved that a little playoff experience can go a long way. If Theodore returns to form, the Caps could be raising some big silver trophy in June.

#2 Carolina Hurricanes – This division is still the weakest in the East and might even be the weakest in all of the NHL. That said, the Hurricanes are not going to forget the collapse they suffered last season when they missed out on the playoffs by two points.

The Canes blue line will look a lot different this season as Glen Wesley and Bret Hedican are gone. They shipped Erik Cole to Edmonton for defenseman Joni Pitkanen and signed Josef Melichar and Anton Babchuk.

They also locked up Eric Staal long-term (not as long as the lifetime deal DiPietro signed, but long enough).

The Canes are very capable of winning this division, don’t get me wrong and it could come down to goaltending. Cam Ward returns and if he plays anything like he did during the Canes Stanley Cup championship run, it could very well happen.

#3 Tampa Bay Lightning – This team had a major overhaul this offseason. New coach, plethora of new faces and the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.

Starting with the coach, Barry Melrose gave up his cushy 1 hour a week of on-camera work at ESPN to return behind the bench as a coach in the NHL. I am very happy to see him back and will miss his insight on the off-chance ESPN remembers that hockey exists.

As for the new faces, three Cup runner ups from this past season migrated south. Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts and Adam Hall. I think the Bolts overpaid for Roberts and Malone, but more power to them. All three of those guys will fit in well, but I still don’t see these guys making the playoffs this season.

Steven Stamkos will make his NHL debut against the Rangers in the NHL’s tour d’Europe to start the season. This kid is electric and very well could make a lot of fantasy owners cringe that they passed him up.

Goaltending remains a concern as Mike Smith will be the main man with Kolzig backing him up. Smith is more than capable, but he’s never been the starting guy. If he passes the test the Bolts will be the most improved team in the league. Shouldn’t be hard after an NHL worst 31 wins and 71 points.

#4 – Florida Panthers – Where to begin with this mess? How about the departure of captain Olli Jokinen who was sent to the Coyotes for Nick Boynton and Keith Ballard. The Panthers also brought in McCabe to help out the blue line.

They may have one of the best blue line corps in the division, but depth up front might be an issues. Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton will be the focal point of the offense now with Jokinen gone and I don’t think those guys are ready to carry a team yet.

In goal Tomas Vokoun will be a rock like usual. Don’t expect a monster win total, but his GAA and save percentage should be nice for a backup fantasy goalie. The Panthers are still a couple years away, but they do have a solid core to build around and could become a force in this weak division soon.

#5 Atlanta Thrashers – Oh boy. Outside of Kovalchuk what is there on this team? I feel bad for Erik Christensen and Colby Armstrong who were traded for “Judas” Hossa. The Thrashers brought in Jason Williams and Marty Reasoner, but outside of those guys who can score?

Tobias Enstrom was a pleasant surprise on the blue line last year and can only get better. This team is in shambles right now with no depth to speak of and seeing star after star leave town by trade or free agency.

In goal Kari Lehtonen is a solid choice and will keep his team in games, but any goalie facing upwards of 40 shots a night can only do so much. There’s not much to say about this team other than, I hope there’s a lot of fan giveaway nights in Atlanta or else there’s going to be a lot of empty seats in the Philips Arena this year.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Playoff Breakdown

The regular season has come to a close in what feels like a blink of an eye. I can't believe this season is already over. It's fast approaching the worst time of year where there is no hockey being played.

It's the time of year when I get to put my thinking cap on and dust off the crystal ball and make some predictions about who's going far and who should start buffing the golf clubs.

But, before we get into the predictions let me boast a little here at Gopher's expense. As many on you might recall, he defeated me in our fantasy hockey league championship round last year and we had a rematch this season.

For the past two weeks I don't think I have trailed once and the lead has just grown and grown with every passing day. The final score of our battle this time around was 13-4 me, thus giving me the gold Yahoo Sports trophy to sit beside the two silver ones from the past two years.

When Gopher comes over in a few days, I'll be hoisting the miniature Stanley Cup and walking it around my basement while my girlfriend looks on and debates calling the authorities to come take me away and put me in a padded room.

Anyway, let's look at the Eastern Conference playoff scenarios.

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #8 Boston Bruins

Well, this will be yet another chapter in this historical rivalry that I didn't think could be any more heated.

Why Montreal Wins: Offensively this team is a much more deep team than the Bruins. Alexi Kovalev has been the player I loved while he was in Pittsburgh. He finished this season with 35 goals and 49 assists for 84 points. This wasn't a career high, but it's the first time he's cracked the 80-point mark since 1999-2000 when he had 95 points in Pittsburgh.

Centerman Tomas Plekanec and defenseman Mark Streit have turned into phenominal players and have been a big reason why the Habs won the regular season Eastern Conference title.

Plekanec was second on the team behing Kovy with 69 points and Streit was third with 62.

Why They Don't Win: Two things jump to mind. Captain Saku Koivu is most likely out for at least the first round. I question how far they can go without their inspirational leader.

Reason number 2 is Carey Price. I give this kid a lot of credit. Really, I do. For as much suspicion I had about him, he was one of the key reasons the Habs won the Conference and why I won my fantasy league, but that was the regular season. How this kid holds up in hostile playoff environments is going to determine just how far they go. I believe he's got all the goods and could easily get the job done, but inexperience shows this time of year.

As for the Bruins:

Why They Win: Hunger. Plain and simple and I'm not just talking about the team. Boston sports have been impressive this past year. The Patriots went undefeated (Super Bowl never happened, see archives for more on that), Red Sox won the World Series and the Celtics are well on their way to winning the NBA championship.

This town used to rally around the Bruins more than any other team, at least it was like that when I was growing up while the Pats, Celts and Sox all were bottom feeders. This town is hungry for its teams to finally do well after suffering for so long and you can bet the farm that the TD Banknorth Garden will be electric especially with an old foe in town. The Bruins will feed off that energy and be a very tough team to beat on home ice.

Gopher's take on that above reasoning: "T don't think hunger is the word. It's unparalleled manifest destiny of a city. I don't if there's a word for that... but thats what it is."

Why They Don't Win: Goaltending jumps off the page at me on this. Tim Thomas has shown moments of brilliance and others where he can't stop a beachball this season and Alex Auld has been right up there with him.

Thomas has played well in April, but the Bruins are 4-2-4 in their last 10 games heading into the playoffs and have shown a severe lack of offense in those games scoring 25 goals.

Bottom Line: The Canadiens are too deep and playing very well right now to be upset by Boston. Let's also not forget that they swept the season series. Habs win in 5.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #7 Ottawa Senators

Well this is a rematch of last season's quarterfinals that the Senators easily won 4-1 en route to a Stanley Cup Finals berth.

Why Pittsburgh Wins: This team is entirely different than the one that got kicked around last year. They're added a lethal scoring threat in Marian Hossa, role player and penalty killing specialist Pascal Dupuis and the shot blocking big body of Hal Gill.

The Penguins now have two lines that can score with Sidney Crosby, Hossa and Dupuis as the new unit. Also, Petr Sykora, Evgeni Malkin and Ryan Malone carried this team while Sid was out with a high ankle sprain. Malone has thrived in leadership role that he was granted earlier this season and developed into the well rounded player who the Penguins have been banking on for years.

Why They Don't Win: Penalty killing is a problem that continues to haunt the Penguins. Their 80.5% kill rate is only better than two other playoff teams (Washington 80.5%, Boston 78.6%.)

The other thing that has me worried is how much did the Pens learn in that quick 5-game series against these same Ottawa Senators? I like to think that the adversity this team faced and overcame during the season has prepared them for what looms in the playoffs.

As for Ottawa:

Why They Win: They won the season series 3-1 against the Pens, but if you remember back to last year the Pens won the regular season series with Ottawa by the same margin and lost in 5 games.

Anyway, Ottawa has some scary talent in Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and let's not forget that this team was the number one team in the Eastern Conference for the majority of the season.

Why They Don't Win: Where to begin with this one? How about in net? Martin Gerber and Ray Emery have quite possibly been the most inconsistent goalies in the history of the game this year. I had Emery on my fantasy team and lived through his ups and downs. Gerber is the clear guy for the playoffs, but how long will it last? He did get yanked in favor of Cam Ward a couple years ago and we all know how that turned out.

Side note: Speaking of the Hurricanes can I just point out the fact that I said in an earlier post that any playoff team would have beaten the Canes in the first round? Some of you called me nuts on that and claimed that they were better than I thought. I guess those people will never get the chance to prove me wrong unless it's on the golf course. Yes, I feel vindicated.

Another thing that won't help the Senators chances against Pittsburgh is that captain Daniel Alfredsson suffered a head and knee injury earlier this week and according to coach Brian Murray he could be out for weeks. Without him in the lineup, their role guys and lesser knowns are going to have to step it up.

Bottom Line: It's time for the Penguins to prove GM Ray Shero right in making the deal for Hossa and show they are a Stanley Cup contender. The time is now. Penguins win in 6.

#3 Washington Capitals vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

This should be one heck of a battle. The two teams split the season series 2-2 and no team won on home ice.

Why The Capitals Win: If this team keeps playing the way it has down the stretch to just make the playoffs, they are going to be a very difficult team to beat four times in seven games.

Cristobal Huet has been magnificent in net and Alexander Ovechkin won the scoring title (112) and goal scoring title (65). They have been red hot and I personally did not think they had it in them to catch the Hurricanes, but they proved me wrong.

Rookie Niklas Backstrom has been a force all season and the emergence of Mike Green on defense has given Alex a few more options while putting on his dazzling performances night in and night out.

Why They Don't Win: I know this may sound old hat by now, but lack of experience. How will Ovechkin react to playoff hockey? Should Huet falter, does Olaf Kolzig remember what playoff hockey even is? Can they possibly keep up this scorching hot streak for another two plus months?

There's a lot of question marks with this team and you also have to wonder how they match up against teams from other divisions as the Southeast is generally the weakest division in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league.

Onto the Flyers:

Why They Win:They match up pretty well against the Capitals. They like to play a bruising style that could slow down the high flying Caps.

The Flyers earned the 6-seed by beating the Penguins on Sunday. A loss and they would've played the Penguins in the first round in what could have potentially been an unheard of nine straight games against the same team.

Pick your poison I guess for Philly who now gets Ovechkin instead of Sidney and Co.

Martin Biron has played well in his first full season with the Flyers going 29-20-9 with a 2.64 GAA and a .917 save percentage. I think his numbers would look better had they not suffered as many injuries as they did.

Why They Don't Win: The only team in the Eastern Conference playoffs with more goals allowed are the Ottawa Senators. Philly has allowed 233 on the year and scored 248. We know they are capable of scoring goals, but can their defense slow down Ovechkin?

Also, Daniel Briere suffered a knee injury in Game 81 on the year against the Penguins and did not suit up in the team's final game against the Penguins on April 6. They Flyers said that he was held out to let him rest up and he was fitted for a knee brace. If he cannot play or has to miss time due to his injury, this could spell the end for Philly.

Bottom Line:The Capitals are on fire right now and hot teams tend to do well in the playoffs. However, they do not have much experience and while there are many question marks about both squads, I see this going the distance with the Flyers moving on to the second round. Flyers win in 7.

#4 New Jersey Devils vs. #5 New York Rangers

A classic rivalry between division foes. The Rangers won the season series 7-1 with four games going to overtime or a shootout. The only Devils win came in their final meeting with home ice on the line on April 6 and it was in the shootout.

Why The Devils Win: Defense, defense defense. There's a saying that goes "Defense wins championships." The Devils took this saying and have taken it to levels not forseen by the author of the quote.

Their trap system has won them three Stanley Cups and numerous division titles and the like. Combine that with hall-of-fame goaltender Martin Brodeur and their boring style of play makes them a tough team to knock out.

They have the experience and grit that is so valuable at this time of year and could be poised to make another long playoff run.

Why They Don't Win: Utter lack of offense. Patrick Elias, Brian Gionta and Zach Parise are the only guys I'd be worried about if I'm the Rangers. Shut that line down, score three goals and the game is over. Sounds simple enough right?

Eventually the lack of scoring depth on this team will catch up to them and it will be good night. The first team that can get the Devils into an up tempo style of play and force them to actually play something that resembles hockey, will knock them out.

Onto the Rangers:

Why They Win: It finally looks as if the Rangers have worked out the early-midseason kinks and have started to gel. The offseason recruits of Chris Drury and Scott Gomez haven't exactly lived up to their $7+ million contracts, but Jaromir Jagr is on fire lately, scoring 5 goals over the last two weeks and netting 8 points.

We've also seen Henrik Lundqvist take control of a playoff series and has big a major reason why the Rangers are even in the playoffs in the first place. Lundqvist went 37-24-9 with 10 shutouts and a 2.24 GAA and .912 save percentage.

Why They Don't Win: What pops out at me the most is the defense. Marek Malik is one of the worst defensemen I've ever seen and when I heard rumors that GM Glenn Sather was looking for a top-4 d-man in return for Malik at the deadline, I needed a new pair of pants from laughing so hard.

He's one of those guys you love to play against because you know if you pressure him at all he'll screw up in some way that gives your team an edge. For example on April 6 against the Devils he crashed into Lundqvist as a shot was coming in. Lundqvist goes to protect himself and the Rangers playoff hopes and the puck goes right into the net.

Earlier this season in Boston in a tie game with 8 seconds left in the third period, Malik has it behind his net with no Bruin player pressuring him. Instead of sitting on it behind the net to get to overtime, he decides to fire a long outlet pass that gets picked off by a streaking Bruin who then gets two glorious chances on Lundqvist who once again had to bail out the Ranger defense.

Bottom Line: The Rangers are capable of slowing a game down and have proven that they can beat the Devils. They can also easily shut down the one scoring threat that the Devils have and come out on top in a long series. Rangers win in 6.