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Showing posts with label playoff predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoff predictions. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

If the season ended today

We are at this current moment 25-30 games away from the end of the regular season. This season has been exciting with some great story lines and is setting up to have two of the best conference finals in a long time should the standings hold true throughout the playoffs. With that said though, we may be in line for the most boring first round of the playoffs ever. I cannot realistically see any 6, 7, or 8 seeds challenging and of the top 3 seeds in either conference.

East

1 Boston Bruins vs 8 Florida Panthers

Boston is currently the best team in the league and outside of it's hiccup last night vs the Fighting Nabokovs, has rarely been beaten badly this season. They score on 23% of their power plays and kill 82% of their penalties. Tim Thomas hasn't woken up yet from his dream season and is playing out of its mind. Florida does not possess an offensive line that scares anybody nor have they picked a goaltender to lead them into the playoffs. Is it Vokoun or Andersen? Who gets the nod to start game one? After either gets shelled in game 1, how long until you see the other in the series? And with all signs to them trading Bouwmeester, the odds of them even making the playoffs are slim at best. But seeing how we are looking at today's standings only, the Panthers are in the playoffs, but won't last long.

Prediction: Bruins 4-0

2 Washington Capitals vs 7 Buffalo Sabres

The most important player in this series will be none other than Alexander....... Semin. Please use the next 20 seconds to throw something against the wall, calm down because I didn't say Ovechkin, and regroup. We good? Great. Alexander Ovechkin in my eyes is the best player in the league. He can score at will, is physical, and creates absolute havoc when on the ice. I have no doubt he will light it up in the playoffs. I am not saying he is not important to the sucess of the Caps. But here is my fun fact of the day. Alexander Semin and Alexander Ovechkin EACH score on average 1.3 points per game. Each averages .7 goals and .6 assists. But the difference is that teams will key on Ovie and try not to let him beat them in the series. This will leave opportunities for Semin. If he can capitalize on those opportunities, these team will go far.

Prediction: Caps 4-1

3 New Jersey Devils vs 6 New York Rangers

It pains me to say this being a Rangers fan, but short of a miracle, they have no chance in the playoffs this year. Let's look at the best case scenario here for the Rangers. Hank plays out of his mind, stands on his head, and allows no more than 2 goals a game. A Devils team who decided the last 15 years of boring hockey wasn't going to cut it decided to go out and get some offense because Brodeur was getting up there in years and was due for and injury letdown (which happened). Marty comes back for the playoffs, with trememdous rest, and the Devils revert back to boring hockey. In that scenario, do the Rangers win 4 games vs. their arch rival. No chance. The Rangers have trouble finding the back of the net and their defense is just bad enough that other teams get multiple scoring chances and cash in on 2-3 a game. Hank does his best to stop them all but he's also human. With Parise, Elias, Zajac, Langenbrunner, Rolston, and Shanny, the Devils are finally poised to take the load off of Marty's back and score more than 2 goals a game. The Garden may give the Rangers a game or 2, but no more.

Prediction: Devils 4-1

West

1 San Jose Sharks vs 8 Minnesota Wild

The Wild are the Rangers of the west. They play great defense, but can't find the back of the net against regular goalies. Evgeni Nabokov is no regular goalie. Nabby has the ability to play at 75% and shut out inferior teams. He will be able to yawn his way through the first round. The only chance the Wild has is if Backstrom matches Nabby and forces games into OT, where suddenly tensions run high, heart rates rise, and every shot could be the last of the game. That, or if the Sharks overlook the Wild and ready for a 2nd round matchup. In my opinion though, both things are highly unlikely and in this bout, Goliath beats David.

Sharks 4-0

2 Detroit Red Wings vs 7 Vancouver Canucks

Outside of Roberto Luongo (who hasn't looked at all himself since returning from the injury) and the Sedin boys, how are the Canucks ever going to match the offensive fire power of the mighty Red Wings. The Wings boast the top PP in the league (over 27%) and have the most goals in the league by a large margin. The 2nd place scoring team can put up a Dallas-esque 10 in the next game and still be trailing Wings in goals scored. If you are facing Detroit, which guy do you target the most to stop? Datsyuk or Zetterberg? Or Hossa? Or Lidstrom? What about on the PP? Because when you are watching those 4, Samuelsson and Hudler and Holmstrom wreak havoc and light the lamp. This team is simply a matchup nightmare, and Vancouver doesn't have the power to do anything about it.

Prediction: Detroit 4-1

3 Calgary Flames vs 6 Anaheim Ducks

This is by far the most intruging matchup of the 1st round and I strategically left it for last. Somehow after losing two of their top scorers from last year in Tanguay and Huselius, the Flames filled in the cracks and are sitting atop their division and in third in the conference. (Michael Cammalleri take a bow) Each year the Flames are the ugly ducklings of the playoffs. They rely on basically two guys to carry the load on their backs (Iginla and Kipper) and use role players the rest of the way to keep the ship going. With that said though, those role players all take turns stepping up and being the heroes of any given game. The Flames win ugly, but the key is Mike Keenan has found a way to keep them winning.

The Ducks on the other hand don't have "it" this year. They look almost bored out there. This team used to be fun to watch. They hit, they fought, they scored, and they looked like they were having fun out there. Now, they look like they are simply going through the motions until the end of April roles around. There is no sense of urgency or want with this team. While I am not saying that is the end all and be all when it comes playoff time, it is something. On top of that, who is getting the nod game 1? Is it Hiller or Giggy? Easily you can make cases for each, but Giggy hasn't been himself since his father passed away and Hiller is inexperienced. Also, whichever one does start will be looking over his shoulder the entire time, especially once one or two losses happen. I think this will be the closest series that isn't a 4-5 in the playoffs, but for some reason I think the Flames want it more and therefore will take it.

Prediction: Calgary 4-2

There you have it, what may be one of the most boring first rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in recent memory.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Conferece Finals Predictions

The conference finals are upon us and we're left with 2 teams everyone expected to see and 2 teams that are raising eyebrows.

Most people expected the Red Wings and Penguins to reach the conference finals, while the Stars and Flyers were question marks to get this far.

I didn't expect to see either the Stars or Flyers make it this far. Philly has completely surprised me after how poorly they played with all the injuries they had. They had to fight just to make it into the playoffs and would have been the 8-seed had they not beaten Pittsburgh on the final day of the regular season to jump up to 6th.

The Dallas Stars were my post-trade deadline favorites to come out of the West after landing Brad Richards. Then they were one of the worst teams down the stretch and turned it on against the Ducks and Sharks and now sit one step away from the Stanley Cup Finals.

Let's do this shall we?

Let's start in the East.

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

Well I said before the playoffs started that I was glad we didn't draw the Flyers in the first round because we finished the regular season with two games against them, which would have potentially set up for nine straight games against the same team. I don't care who you are, neither team would have made it out of the second round after playing nine straight games against each other in one of the most heated rivalries in all of hockey.

The Flyers do not get enough credit for how fast they are. When people think of the Flyers one of the first things that comes to mind is, dirty. Yes, they had a ton of suspensions this year and were even warned by the league office about it. Fine. That's never going to change while Bobby Clarke has anything to say about it.

They play a physical style that not many teams can compete with, but guys like Jeff Carter, Daniel Briere, Mike Richards and even R.J. Umberger can all skate pretty well. Umberger has been unbelievable during these playoffs and likes to play against his hometown Penguins.

Another big reason why the Flyers are in the conference finals is the play of goaltender Martin Biron. I can remember watching a couple games of the last series with Montreal and how Biron singlehandedly stole two games by standing on his head.

The big question mark for Philly is can they contain the big three from Pittsburgh in Marian Hossa, Evgeni Malkin and of course Sidney Crosby.

The Canadiens and Penguins are very similar. Both like to get out and skate and have exceptionally skilled players on offense. The biggest difference between the two teams is that the Penguins have Marc-Andre Fleury and not Carey Price.

I said before the playoffs even started that Price would be the reason the Habs would lose if they indeed did get knocked out. I'd like to see anyone try and argue with me that Price wasn't the reason the Habs lost in that series. Price got yanked twice, benched once and shelled in Game 5. He's going to be a great goalie in this league for many years to come and the lessons he learned from being abused in this series will go a long way. Have faith Montreal.

Now I'm not saying Fleury has a ton more experience than Price, but he's been in the league much longer and at least got a taste of playoff hockey last year so he knows what to expect. That experience alone and probably giving up his trademark yellow pads and gloves have carried the Penguins so far. With a 7-1 record with a 1.76 GAA and .936 save percentage are a big reason why the Flyers need to be concerned.

Montreal showed that Biron was capable of giving up goals and the Penguins have shown that they can win shootouts and tight games. Just look at the series against the Rangers as proof.

The Penguins defense has been unbelievable down the stretch and into the playoffs as well as the penalty kill. I hate to admit this, but the addition of Hal Gill has been a big (no pun intended) reason for this.

Two quick danger notes.

For the Penguins, watch out when Gill and Rob Scuderi are on the ice together. Both are great defensive defensemen who love to block shots. The problem is that they aren't exactly fast skaters. The Flyers could exploit this and force Michel Therrien to change it up a little.

For the Flyers, one of their best defensemen is most likely out for the playoffs after blood clots were discovered in his left foot. This is a HUGE loss for the Flyers. If there was one position besides in net that they could not afford to lose someone, it would be on defense.

Bottom Line This is going to get nasty and very quick. This could very well come down to who can keep their emotions in check. Special teams will be huge and the Penguins have the edge. Pittsburgh's PP is 4th in the playoffs clicking at 23.4%, while Philly is clicking at 24%.

The difference is that Philly is the most penalized team in the playoffs and has been shorthanded 57 times whereas Pittsburgh has only been shorthanded 38 and has killed off nearly 90% of them.

Penguins win in 6.

Western Conference

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #5 Dallas Stars

Can we say a classic battle of offense against defense? Let's throw another cliche out there. Defense wins championships.

I'm not saying that Detroit can't play defense, but their offense has been the story so far in these playoffs, especially Johan Franzen who has 15 goals in the playoffs including Game 1 against the Stars. (Yes, I'm aware this is a little late being posted, but if you knew the week I had, you'd understand.)

Marty Turco has been a big reason that one of the best defensive teams in the West has made it this far. They took out two of the most dominant teams in the conference in San Jose and Anaheim. I'm shocked really.

Brendan Morrow has been fantastic in these playoffs including ending the best game of the playoffs so far in Game 6 against San Jose to send the Stars into the finals. This team is coming together at just the right time and living up to the potential they have on paper to be one of the most suffocating teams in the entire league.

Detroit on the other hand, has cruised through the playoffs so far. The main reason for this is because they haven't played a team that has been able to force the issue and force them to skate.

Nashville did it for two games on home ice and won both. The problem was that their goaltending was suspect the rest of the time and Detroit pounced. The Stars might not have enough speed to be able to exploit this weakness, but if you look ahead to the Stanley Cup Finals, you can see where I'm going with this.

What the Stars should be able to do is clog up the ice and keep Detroit to the outsides and capitalize on turnovers. I still don't trust Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek with their AARP card memberships in the mail. Yes, Ozzie has played well so far while filling in for Hasek. I just don't trust his body holding up.

Bottom Line: If Dallas can stay out of the box and play the way they have against a high powered Anaheim team, they can pull off the upset here. Seriously. Marty Turco is finally playing like a playoff goalie coming off last season's great seven game series with the Canucks. That was not his fault at all, but he seems to have learned how to win in the playoffs. If the Stars align, it could be onto the Stanley Cup Finals.

Stars win in 7.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Second Round Analysis

The second round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs gets underway tonight and I couldn't be happier about it.

We had a couple of surprises in the first round that are worth mentioning. First off congrats to the Boston Bruins for showing some fight and forcing a Game 7 after bing down 3-1 in the series. There seems to be a bright future in Boston and they have nothing to hang their heads about.

Secondly, what was up with the Anaheim Ducks? Of course it's harder than ever to repeat as champs now, but the effort just didn't seem to consistently be there against the Stars. The two games they actually showed up for they won and the second of which they were still badly outshot.

Lastly, we learned that assembling a Stanley Cup champion team from several years ago might actually be a good move after all. The Colorado Avalanche looked pretty good against the defensive minded Minnesota Wild and Jose Theodore was brilliant between the pipes.

With that said, let's take a look at how my predictions from the first round went.

I nailed the Eastern Conference dead on and even hit the exact amount of games correctly in the Philadelphia/Washington series. Out west was a different story where I went 2/4 giving me a grand total of 6 out of 8 correct picks. Not too shabby I suppose. Since I hit the East dead on, I feel obligated to defend the playoff pool picks, so without further ado here's my analysis and predictions for the second round in both conferences.

Eastern Conference

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

Rather than use the old format of why each wins and such I'll just do this quick hitter style.

The Flyers will be without veteran leader and one of their top scorers in Mike Knuble who went down in Game 5 against the Caps with a partially torn hamstring. According to TSN.ca, Knuble is working to get back on the ice for this series, but it's going to depend on how quickly he heals. Without him it's going to be tough for the Flyers to knock off the top team in the East.

Carey Price nearly made me look like a genius. If you'll recall, in the Eastern Conference breakdown I did I said the reason the Habs wouldn't win would be because of this kid. He nearly proved me right too. He looked solid in net for the first four games of the series. Then Games 5 and 6 he might not have been able to stop a beachball as he gave up 10 goals in two games. As a Pens fan I started cheering for Boston to win Game 7 so we'd play them in the next round. Price settled down and the Habs won 5-0 in a game where the scoreboard doesn't reflect how close the game was.

The key for the Habs in this series is that Price cannot have a funk like this again if the Habs are going to make a deep run. They should win this series rather easily as they are a more deep team than the Caps were and are just as fast if not faster.

For the Flyers, they are going to have to suffocate their opponent in the defensive end. They did a good job of limiting the damage Alexander Ovechkin and Co. did against them and that's why they prevailed in the series. They have a decisive edge when you look at physicality and will have to jump on the Habs early by hitting anything that moves to make their forwards think twice about touching the puck. If they can do that the Flyers might have a chance at the upset.

Bottom Line: The Canadiens looked vulnerable at times against the Bruins, but I don't think the Flyers are the team who can exploit those weaknesses and win four games from it. If Price stays sharp this is over quick. Canadiens win in 5.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 New York Rangers

Did I predict this would happen? Yes. Am I happy it turned out this way? I don't know. As a Pens fan I much rather would have seen the Caps or Bruins who played very tough and demanding seven game series and I think we could have easily skated past both of them as we're well rested after a quick sweep of the Sens.

The Rangers looked impressive against the Devils in their first round series, but I question just how good they were. I really think it would have been a much longer series than five games had Martin Brodeur not allowed about 7 soft goals that come to mind. Specifically Game 1 where he inexplicably left a puck sitting a foot from the goal-line in his crease thinking that the Rangers' player skating by was a teammate only to see it end up in the back of his net. Brodeur looked awful for most of this series and awful goaltending does not win you games in the playoffs.

The Devils aside, the Rangers have been a much improved team down th stretch and so far in the playoffs than they were for most of the season. Henrik Lundqvist appears to have returned to the Vezina Trophy form we all knew he was capable of, but the big question that looms in this series is can their defense slow down the speedy Penguins? If they can the Rangers could win this series.

For the Penguins this comes down to one key. Don't let Sean Avery have his way on the ice. This guy should be inducted into the Pests In Sports Hall Of Fame. The Penguins cannot take stupid penalties because they are frustrated with Sean Avery. The Devils did it and were gone in five games.

The Pens have a much deeper team on offense and have a much different team than the one the Rangers saw throughout the season eight times. They are a healthy bunch with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin scoring points at will it seems like. Marian Hossa was amazing in the first round even if he doesn't have the point total to show that. He's been buzzing around the net and eventually that will pay off. Also, Marc-Andre Fleury looks like an entirely different goalie than he did even before he had the high-ankle sprain. He's been fantastic down the stretch and so far in the playoffs. He will need to keep it up and know that JAGR ONLY SHOOTS FROM THE RIGHT FACE-OFF DOT. THAT'S IT! THAT'S THE ONLY PLACE HE EVER SHOOTS FROM! BE AWARE OF IT!

I honestly don't know how the scouting report on Jagr doesn't say that exact same thing. It boggles my mind how teams let him shoot from there all day long. He did it in Pittsburgh too. It's always been his "spot."

Bottom line: Jagr returns to Pittsburgh for the first time in the playoffs and will see his arch enemy Hal Gill. Think I'm joking? Few years back Jagr publicly admitted that he hates playing against Gill because his big frame shuts him down. There will be no rust factor that will give either side an edge. Both sides have had long layoffs and are anxious to get back on the ice. To me, the Penguins have too much firepower and are playing their best hockey of the season. There's a reason they're the division champs and it will show in this series. This next line is for Gopher. Pray Marek Malik doesn't make an appearance in this series or you and your Rangers will be weeping. Penguins win in 7.

Western Conference

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche

A month or so ago I did up a post on first round nightmare scenarios. This is the series I picked involving the Red Wings. Granted it didn't happen in the first round, but even if you're not a fan of these teams you have to be jacked up about this series.

This series will get nasty and get nasty very quick. To say these two teams loathe each other would be an understatement. I don't particularly think either side has as much physical presence as they did for their first few playoff match-ups, but the Wings have guys like Chris Chelios who like to bring the pain so everyone is going to have to keep their head on a swivel.

For the Avalanche to pull off the upset, they are going to need Jose Theodore to steal a couple games. He did it against the Wild and might just be playing the best hockey we've seen him play since his days in Montreal. Guys like Milan Hejduk and Paul Stastny are going to need to step up big time in this series and the Avs d-corps is going to have to figure out a way to slow down Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg.

For the Wings it starts and ends in net. Hasek was brutal in Games 3 and 4 and Mike Babcock wasted no time in going to Chris Osgood who played well in the final two games of the series. I haven't trusted this goaltending duo since day one this year and I'm still suspect of how those old bones are holding up after a total of 88 games so far this season.

The only way I see the Wings losing this series is if they beat themselves or get too wrapped up in the rivalry and start taking unnecessary shots at the Avs.

Bottom Line The Wings are too good of a team for the Avs to handle. As much as I'd like to pick the Avalanche to win this series to further fuel the rivalry, I just can't do it. The Wings have more firepower up front and have a veteran defensive corps led by Nick Lidstrom who's once again up for the Norris Trophy. Wings win in 6.

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #5 Dallas Stars

Now I'm torn on this one. On the one hand I picked San Jose to win the Stanley Cup this year. On the other you have a team that dispatched the defending champs in rather easy fashion. This is a tough one.

The Stars finally snapped out of whatever funk they were in down the stretch and made the Ducks look silly in their series. I will say this though, had they lost Game 6 at home, I wouldn't be sitting here typing about the Stars. There is no way they win Game 7 in Anaheim. None.

Anyway, Marty Turco wasn't brilliant in net, but he didn't have to be. When your team puts up 4-5 goals a game you can afford to give up a goal or two. He will have to be spectacular against the Sharks or the Stars will ride off into the Texas sunset.

For the Sharks it's very simple. Take the lessons learned against Calgary and apply them to the Stars. The big wake-up call in this series was Game 3. San Jose chased Kipper from the net with three goals in under four minutes of play only to see the Flames storm back and win.

Going down 2-1 in the series right then and there and then coming back to eventually win in seven games is the kind of adversity championship teams have to overcome. They earned the right to be in the second round and it's time to prove that they belong.

Jonathan Cheechoo may not have even combined over the last two years to equal his single season goal mark of 56 in 2005-06 and if he has it's gotta be real close, but he showed signs of life against the Flames. The big question for the Stars is can they contain Joe Thornton. San Jose's offense more or less starts and stops with Big Joe. If the Stars limit his chances and get sticks and bodies in his passing lanes, they could pull this off.

Bottom Line: If I hadn't taken the Sharks to win the cup I'd be picking the Stars in this series. The Sharks have underachieved every time they are a favorite or a Cup contender and eventually that will come back to haunt them and me. Sharks win in 6.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Full Playoff Pool Type Predictions

OK, these last couple of days have been crazy busy for me. I won't bore you with the details, but I wanted to get this up before the first round got too deep in and then I'd look like a moron.

Normally every year I ran a NHL playoff pool. None of this round by round stuff like you all do in your NFL pools. This is exactly like an NCAA basketball pool. I must say, I usually am pretty close on these. Came in second the last time I hosted the pool two years ago before we all graduated from college. I don't run it anymore because I can't get the money from people and it's just a pain. Someday I'll start it up again.

Anyway, as you've seen from the previous two posts I broke down the first round in both conferences and made predictions about them as well. To continue on with that trend, here's what my picks would have been if I was in a pool this year with just a little explanation about each one. We'll start with what would be my second round and go from there,

But first, a refresher on my first round picks for those of you who are new to the site.

Eastern Conference

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #8 Boston Bruins

Montreal wins in 5. This is such a mismatch it's not even funny and I'd actually be impressed if Boston stretches this to six games.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #7 Ottawa Senators

Penguins win in 6. After a season of growing and thinking about last year, the Penguins are back and much improved. New guns like Marian Hossa and Petr Sykora give this already deep team, another dimension. The Pens will turn the tables on the Sens and skate into the second round.

#3 Washington Capitals vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

The Caps are one of the best stories of the year, but the fairy tale ends in the first round. Flyers in 7.

#4 New Jersey Devils vs. #5 New York Rangers

The Devils once again get into the playoffs based on their trap style of play despite having less offensive talent than a pee-wee hockey team. Anyway, the Rangers are playing their best hockey of the season and hold a 7-1 regular season record over the Devils. Rangers win in 6.

Now for the second round predictions.

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

For as good as Philly has been for most of the season (the injuries are the only reason they aren't a higher seed), the Habs are a better rounded team. The Flyers bruising style of play becomes ineffective when you can't catch what you're trying to hit. The Habs have plenty of speed and in this league, speed kills. Montreal in 6.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 New York Rangers

As a Pens fan I'd be a little uneasy about facing this team in the second round. The Pens have been totally shut down at Madison Square Garden the last couple meetings there this season. They also haven't shown the Rangers a full roster all season. As much as I like how the Rangers are playing and how good Henrik Lundqvist is, they have been a very streaky team this season and I'm banking on them going on a cold streak against Pittsburgh. Penguins win in 7.

Eastern Conference Finals

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #2 Pittsburgh Penguins

This would be a very fun series to see I must admit. Even if you don't like either team you know you'd be glued to the tv for every game. The two teams match up very well against each other, play similar styles and have young goaltenders who will be stars in the league for a long time.

To illustrate how close these teams are, here's the season series.

Oct. 10 - Pens 3 - Habs 2
Oct. 27 - Habs 4 - Pens 3 (Shootout)
Jan. 19 - Pens 2 - Habs 0
Feb. 21 - Pens 5 - Habs 4

All four games were one goal games. The 2-0 Penguins win saw Evgeni Malkin score into an empty net in the dying seconds.

This series will be a fast paced one no doubt. The Canadiens have a great team, but I think the Penguins may have a little bit of a physical edge with guys like Georges Laraque, Jarkko Ruutu and Hal Gill. Pens win in 6.

Western Conference Playoffs

As with the above, here's the quick recap of the picks from the first round out west.

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Nashville Predators

The Predators are a great story this year and shattered expectations, but the Red Wings are too dominant and too deep for the Predators to have a chance in this series. Red Wings win in 5.

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #7 Calgary Flames

This will no doubt be a tight checking, defensive battle. San Jose is the hottest team in the league heading into the playoffs so they get my nod. Sharks win in 6.

#3 Minnesota Avalanche vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche

Plain and simple, I like Minnesota's goaltending more than I do Colorado's. The Wild play a fairly defensive style and should be able to slow down Peter Forsberg and the Avs. Wild win in 7.

#4 Anaheim Ducks vs. #5 Dallas Stars

The Stars lead the regular season series, but the Ducks currently hold the cup and that's why I give them the edge here in what will be a fantastic series. Ducks win in 6.

Second Round

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #4 Anaheim Ducks

I know what you're thinking. "Way to take all the favorites in the first round." Funny you should say that, I want to see this matchup because I think the Ducks may be the only team in the league that could not only slow down the Wings with their physical play, but also take them out. Ducks win in 7.

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #3 Minnesota Wild

I question if the Wild would have been able to win a series in the first round without home ice and again, the Sharks are too hot to not think they'd go far. Sharks win in 5.

Western Conference Finals

#2 San Jose Sharks vs. #4 Anaheim Ducks

An all California Western Conference Finals. This could be one of the greatest series of all-time if it actually happens. (Remember, these are just one slightly demented man's picks based on some personal preference and a lot of nights watching hockey alone while his girlfriend wonders if she's dating a man or the NHL Center Ice package.)

If this happens I'll go into more detail, but I think the Sharks finally get over the hump and represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals. Sharks win in overtime in Game 7.

Stanley Cup Finals

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #2 San Jose Sharks

As much as I'd like to annoy everyone and take the homer pick and say the Penguins will win the Cup this season, none of you would ever read this again and I don't want that.

Also, I think the Western Conference is a much better conference than the East in terms of talent. The Penguins have a legit chance for the first time in many years, but the Sharks have an edge in the defensive aspect of the game and in net. The Penguins have the hands down offensive edge, but in this league defense wins championships.

The San Jose Sharks in my opinion will be the 2007-2008 Stanley Cup Champions. It won't be an easy finals against the Penguins, but I see it going 6 games.

There you have it, my full out predictions of how the playoffs will turn out. I'll use this as a measuring stick as the playoffs go along and also do more round by round breakdowns like the previous two posts. Thanks for reading!

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Western Conference Quarterfinals Playoff Breakdown

As promised yesterday, here is the breakdown of the Western Conference quarterfinals.

The Western Conference in my opinion is going to be a little harder to predict as almost any team could represent the West in the Stanley Cup Finals, but let's get right into it.

#1 Detroit Red Wings vs #8 Nashville Predators

I can't believe I'm actually sitting here staring at this matchup. I thought for sure that with losing guys like Paul Kariya Kimmo Timmonen and Tomas Vokoun that this team wouldn't even be relevant, but here we are.

Why The Wings Win:

Better question is why don't they win, but we'll get there. This has been the most complete and dominant team in the NHL this season. Yes, the Sharks are probably the hottest team in the world right now, but look at this from a season standpoint.

If the Wings haven't been the number one seed from game one of the season, it had to have taken them at most three or four games to claim that spot and they haven't given it up since.

The play of Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk has been incredible and guys like Johan Franzen have stepped up and performed well above expectations.

Why They Don't Win: Told you we'd get to this. Anyway, it's hard to find a flaw in this team. The only thing that jumps to mind is that the combined age of their goaltending is just shy of triple digits. Not to mention Chris Osgood has either been great, or terrible. Yeah, his save percentage is impressive, but come on a pylon could've put up solid numbers for the Wings this year.

They're that good.

Onto the Predators

Why They Win: Dan Ellis has been on fire recently. He hasn't given up more than three goals since Feb. 23 against Dallas in a 6-3 loss.

Since then he's 8-4-1 with two shutouts.

The Predators have been playing well down the stretch going 6-3-1 in their final ten games to catch and hold off the Vancouver Canucks for the final playoff spot.

If the Predators are going to win Ellis is going to have to channel the spirit of Dwayne Roloson and J.S. Giguere from playoffs past.

Why They Don't Win: I just don't see the Preds pulling off the upset. Don't get me wrong, I'll be rooting for it, but Detroit has the complete package.

The Predators aren't exactly a deep team and that is going to be what hurts them. They have played the Wings well only losing the season series 5-3, but this is the playoffs and the Wings are very much built for the playoffs.

Bottom Line: Nashville as an organization should feel good about defying odds and making the playoffs at least, but don't blink because this one is going to be over quick. Red Wings in 5.

#2 San Jose Sharks vs #7 Calgary Flames

By far one of the most intriguing goaltending matchups we'll get in the playoffs. Evgeni Nabokov against Miikka Kiprusoff. Both capable of stealing a series.

Why The Sharks Win: This team has been the most dominant team in the league down the stretch. Before losing in regulation of their last game of the season, the Sharks hadn't lost in regulation in 21 straight games. Are you kidding me? A pace like that and they couldn't even catch the Wings who had built up a huge lead all season.

Joe Thornton may be the best passer in the game and in the top 5 all-time. Big Joe didn't reach 100 points this season falling just three shy, but he still logged 67 helpers. I really like this team's chances to represent the West.

Why They Don't Win: This is a team that doesn't get out and score many goals. If they face a team that can figure out a way to get past their incredible defense and get some pucks behind Nabokov, the Sharks are going to be in trouble.

Onto the Flames

Why They Win: Jarome Iginla and Kipper are going to have to put this team on their back and carry them. Calgary has been one of the streakiest teams in the league this season. They'll go from scoring at will to not being able to hit the broad side of a barn. From a fantasy standpoint, that fact killed Gopher all year long as he had Iginla, Alex Tanguay and Daymod Langkow. When that line was hot, he was unbeatable. When it was cold, he was still tough to play against, but easier to knock off, unless you had my team which whooped him even with them scoring.

But I digress.

Kipper is obviously capable of carrying this team in the playoffs. He did in during the 2004 playoffs and in my opinion won the Stanley Cup in overtime in Game 6. If he plays solid and the Iginla line plays like it can, the Flames have a shot. Let's not forget that they won the season series with the Flames 3-1.

Why They Don't Win: I wouldn't exactly say the Flames are living up to their name as they went 5-5 in their final ten games. Kipper was pulled against the Canucks on March 30 after giving up four goals on 13 shots.

The Flames also haven't scored more than three goals in a game sin March 22 against Minnesota in a 5-4 win, a span of six straight games.

Bottom Line: If the Flames would have played better down the stretch, I could see myself taking them in this series based on their record against San Jose. However, San Jose is the hottest team in the league as noted above and should have no trouble advancing to the second round. Sharks in 6.

#3 Minnesota Wild vs #6 Colorado Avalanche

This series could go on for a while. With Colorado's win on the last day of the regular season, they earned the 6-seed and the right to play the Wild in the first round.

Why The Wild Win: The Wild always seem to be in every game they play. They hang around like no other and have the potential to explode for goals at any minute.

For them to win this series Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra are going to need to step up. Not to mention, Brian Rolston has been fantastic over the last couple of months. I nearly dropped him in my fantasy league, but he quickly turned it around and finished the season with 31 goals and 28 assists for 59 points. If he had been on the same line as Gaborik for the entire season, hes over 75 points.

Let's not overlook goaltender Niklas Backstrom who has been phenomenal this season going 33-13-8 with a 2.31GAA and a .920 save percentage. He's also on a personal four-game winning streak that he's only allowed a total of four goals and has one shutout.

Why They Don't Win For a team that was built around a defensive standpoint, they have given up 218 goals this season. Only three other Western Conference playoff teams have given up more.

The team has also scored 223 goals giving them a goal differential of +5 which is only better than #7 Calgary (+2) and #8 Nashville (+1). You could look at that two different ways: On one hand, they've shown they can win close games which the playoffs are known for. On the other hand, it shows that they can be scored on which has to worry the fans and coaching staff.

Onto The Avalanche:

Why They Win: Well this is pretty easy, they reassembled the Stanley Cup champion team from 2000-01. The only notable players missing are Patrick Roy, Ray Bourque, Chris Drury and Alex Tanguay. The rest of the roster is pretty close.

Peter Forsberg is the X-Factor in this series to me. When he's healthy, and not that often, he is one of the best players in the world hands down. Like any great player, Forsberg makes the other guys around him better.

I would say the Avs have played better since the trade deadline and that's true. They were hovering around the 8-seed all season long and at least managed to jump up a couple spots down the stretch even if it was on the last day of the season. They suffered a lot of injuries this season to key players, namely Joe Sakic who only played in 44 games this season. The team is healthy again and that makes them dangerous.

Why They Don't Win: Will the real Jose Theodore please stand up? Is he hot right now, yes. He's 5-0-1 in his last six games with a shutout. The problem here is that if you look at his game log from this season, this isn't the first time he's gone on a streak like this.

By my count this is the 5th win streak he has totaled this year of at least three games. Every time after the streaks? Multiple loss streaks of at least 3. For example, from Feb. 26 - March 8 he went 6-0. Immediately following that streak he went 1-4 over his next six starts. He was yanked from the cage in the sixth game after allowing three goals on eight shots in 14 minutes. He got off the hook as the Avs ended up losing 7-5 to Edmonton.

There is a pattern with him and if looks shaky at all, Peter Budaj is going to have to step up huge.

Bottom Line: If the last game of the season series on April 6 was a precursor to what we are in store for, this is going to be a fun series to watch. There may not be a lot of goals scored, but I'm thinking we'll see a lot of 3-2 games. Based on goaltending, Wild win in 7.

#4 Anaheim Ducks vs #5 Dallas Stars

Oh baby this is going to be a good one. Giguere vs Marty Turco. The defending champs taking on one of the most complete teams in the league.

Why The Ducks Win: The Ducks may have figured out how to build a cup contender from year to year. If you look back to the Stanley Cup Finals last year against Ottawa, they completely shutdown the high flying Sens by pounding them into the ice every chance they got. I'm not saying they Ducks are just a bunch of goons, though they do have two that jump to mind in Todd Bertuzzi and Chris Pronger.

The thing with the Ducks is that they are a group of huge individuals who can skate like the wind and hit like a Mack truck. Let's also not forget they have a Conn Smythe winner in net.

Since Teemu Selann and Scott Niedermayer decided to return from a retirement of sorts, the team has responded and looked much like the same team as last year. They go their identity back and have been a force down the stretch. They're 8-2-0 in their last ten games which you like to see if you're a fan heading into the playoffs.

Why They Don't Win: The only way this team loses in the first round, is if they beat themselves. I'm not just talking about showing up to the rink and playing for 60 minutes. Guys like Pronger and Bertuzzi need to keep their emotions in check. Pronger was jut suspended for eight games for stomping on Ryan Kesler and he was suspended during last year's cup run for an elbow which was debatable.

The Ducks need to show up and play the bruising style of play we know they are capable of playing. It won them the cup last season and it could very well do it again this year.

Onto the Stars:

Why They Win: On paper I like this team a lot. I loved the addition of Brad Richards at the trade deadline and he appeared to be fitting in quite nicely.

He's going to have to step up as a former Stanley Cup champion and bring his A-game if the Stars are going anywhere. Other guys like Mike Modano are going to need to step it up as well.

In net, the time is now for Marty Turco. Stars management entertained offers for him in the offseason and chose to stick with him. If the Stars lose because of poor play in net, he could very well have played his last game in Dallas. I don't blame last year's loss to the Canucks in seven games on Turco at all. It was a great series and he played well, but against a team like Anaheim you can't give them soft goals.

Why They Don't Win: I don't know if there's a chemistry problem going on in Dallas or what, but since the Richards deal the team hasn't been winning many games. In their last ten games they're 3-5-2, which I'd be worried about if I was a Stars fan or player.

Richards did not play a game in April and only recorded six points in March. That lack of offensive putout was a major reason why the Bolts traded him. That and the salary cap issue with keeping Lecavalier and Marty St. Louis.

Bottom Line: I never trust slumping teams come playoff time, but if there is a team that has the ability to turn it around it's the Stars who won the season series with the Ducks 5-3. As much as I like the Stars on paper, the Ducks are the team to beat right now as they still hold the Stanley Cup. Ducks win in 6.

Monday, April 7, 2008

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Playoff Breakdown

The regular season has come to a close in what feels like a blink of an eye. I can't believe this season is already over. It's fast approaching the worst time of year where there is no hockey being played.

It's the time of year when I get to put my thinking cap on and dust off the crystal ball and make some predictions about who's going far and who should start buffing the golf clubs.

But, before we get into the predictions let me boast a little here at Gopher's expense. As many on you might recall, he defeated me in our fantasy hockey league championship round last year and we had a rematch this season.

For the past two weeks I don't think I have trailed once and the lead has just grown and grown with every passing day. The final score of our battle this time around was 13-4 me, thus giving me the gold Yahoo Sports trophy to sit beside the two silver ones from the past two years.

When Gopher comes over in a few days, I'll be hoisting the miniature Stanley Cup and walking it around my basement while my girlfriend looks on and debates calling the authorities to come take me away and put me in a padded room.

Anyway, let's look at the Eastern Conference playoff scenarios.

#1 Montreal Canadiens vs. #8 Boston Bruins

Well, this will be yet another chapter in this historical rivalry that I didn't think could be any more heated.

Why Montreal Wins: Offensively this team is a much more deep team than the Bruins. Alexi Kovalev has been the player I loved while he was in Pittsburgh. He finished this season with 35 goals and 49 assists for 84 points. This wasn't a career high, but it's the first time he's cracked the 80-point mark since 1999-2000 when he had 95 points in Pittsburgh.

Centerman Tomas Plekanec and defenseman Mark Streit have turned into phenominal players and have been a big reason why the Habs won the regular season Eastern Conference title.

Plekanec was second on the team behing Kovy with 69 points and Streit was third with 62.

Why They Don't Win: Two things jump to mind. Captain Saku Koivu is most likely out for at least the first round. I question how far they can go without their inspirational leader.

Reason number 2 is Carey Price. I give this kid a lot of credit. Really, I do. For as much suspicion I had about him, he was one of the key reasons the Habs won the Conference and why I won my fantasy league, but that was the regular season. How this kid holds up in hostile playoff environments is going to determine just how far they go. I believe he's got all the goods and could easily get the job done, but inexperience shows this time of year.

As for the Bruins:

Why They Win: Hunger. Plain and simple and I'm not just talking about the team. Boston sports have been impressive this past year. The Patriots went undefeated (Super Bowl never happened, see archives for more on that), Red Sox won the World Series and the Celtics are well on their way to winning the NBA championship.

This town used to rally around the Bruins more than any other team, at least it was like that when I was growing up while the Pats, Celts and Sox all were bottom feeders. This town is hungry for its teams to finally do well after suffering for so long and you can bet the farm that the TD Banknorth Garden will be electric especially with an old foe in town. The Bruins will feed off that energy and be a very tough team to beat on home ice.

Gopher's take on that above reasoning: "T don't think hunger is the word. It's unparalleled manifest destiny of a city. I don't if there's a word for that... but thats what it is."

Why They Don't Win: Goaltending jumps off the page at me on this. Tim Thomas has shown moments of brilliance and others where he can't stop a beachball this season and Alex Auld has been right up there with him.

Thomas has played well in April, but the Bruins are 4-2-4 in their last 10 games heading into the playoffs and have shown a severe lack of offense in those games scoring 25 goals.

Bottom Line: The Canadiens are too deep and playing very well right now to be upset by Boston. Let's also not forget that they swept the season series. Habs win in 5.

#2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #7 Ottawa Senators

Well this is a rematch of last season's quarterfinals that the Senators easily won 4-1 en route to a Stanley Cup Finals berth.

Why Pittsburgh Wins: This team is entirely different than the one that got kicked around last year. They're added a lethal scoring threat in Marian Hossa, role player and penalty killing specialist Pascal Dupuis and the shot blocking big body of Hal Gill.

The Penguins now have two lines that can score with Sidney Crosby, Hossa and Dupuis as the new unit. Also, Petr Sykora, Evgeni Malkin and Ryan Malone carried this team while Sid was out with a high ankle sprain. Malone has thrived in leadership role that he was granted earlier this season and developed into the well rounded player who the Penguins have been banking on for years.

Why They Don't Win: Penalty killing is a problem that continues to haunt the Penguins. Their 80.5% kill rate is only better than two other playoff teams (Washington 80.5%, Boston 78.6%.)

The other thing that has me worried is how much did the Pens learn in that quick 5-game series against these same Ottawa Senators? I like to think that the adversity this team faced and overcame during the season has prepared them for what looms in the playoffs.

As for Ottawa:

Why They Win: They won the season series 3-1 against the Pens, but if you remember back to last year the Pens won the regular season series with Ottawa by the same margin and lost in 5 games.

Anyway, Ottawa has some scary talent in Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and let's not forget that this team was the number one team in the Eastern Conference for the majority of the season.

Why They Don't Win: Where to begin with this one? How about in net? Martin Gerber and Ray Emery have quite possibly been the most inconsistent goalies in the history of the game this year. I had Emery on my fantasy team and lived through his ups and downs. Gerber is the clear guy for the playoffs, but how long will it last? He did get yanked in favor of Cam Ward a couple years ago and we all know how that turned out.

Side note: Speaking of the Hurricanes can I just point out the fact that I said in an earlier post that any playoff team would have beaten the Canes in the first round? Some of you called me nuts on that and claimed that they were better than I thought. I guess those people will never get the chance to prove me wrong unless it's on the golf course. Yes, I feel vindicated.

Another thing that won't help the Senators chances against Pittsburgh is that captain Daniel Alfredsson suffered a head and knee injury earlier this week and according to coach Brian Murray he could be out for weeks. Without him in the lineup, their role guys and lesser knowns are going to have to step it up.

Bottom Line: It's time for the Penguins to prove GM Ray Shero right in making the deal for Hossa and show they are a Stanley Cup contender. The time is now. Penguins win in 6.

#3 Washington Capitals vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers

This should be one heck of a battle. The two teams split the season series 2-2 and no team won on home ice.

Why The Capitals Win: If this team keeps playing the way it has down the stretch to just make the playoffs, they are going to be a very difficult team to beat four times in seven games.

Cristobal Huet has been magnificent in net and Alexander Ovechkin won the scoring title (112) and goal scoring title (65). They have been red hot and I personally did not think they had it in them to catch the Hurricanes, but they proved me wrong.

Rookie Niklas Backstrom has been a force all season and the emergence of Mike Green on defense has given Alex a few more options while putting on his dazzling performances night in and night out.

Why They Don't Win: I know this may sound old hat by now, but lack of experience. How will Ovechkin react to playoff hockey? Should Huet falter, does Olaf Kolzig remember what playoff hockey even is? Can they possibly keep up this scorching hot streak for another two plus months?

There's a lot of question marks with this team and you also have to wonder how they match up against teams from other divisions as the Southeast is generally the weakest division in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league.

Onto the Flyers:

Why They Win:They match up pretty well against the Capitals. They like to play a bruising style that could slow down the high flying Caps.

The Flyers earned the 6-seed by beating the Penguins on Sunday. A loss and they would've played the Penguins in the first round in what could have potentially been an unheard of nine straight games against the same team.

Pick your poison I guess for Philly who now gets Ovechkin instead of Sidney and Co.

Martin Biron has played well in his first full season with the Flyers going 29-20-9 with a 2.64 GAA and a .917 save percentage. I think his numbers would look better had they not suffered as many injuries as they did.

Why They Don't Win: The only team in the Eastern Conference playoffs with more goals allowed are the Ottawa Senators. Philly has allowed 233 on the year and scored 248. We know they are capable of scoring goals, but can their defense slow down Ovechkin?

Also, Daniel Briere suffered a knee injury in Game 81 on the year against the Penguins and did not suit up in the team's final game against the Penguins on April 6. They Flyers said that he was held out to let him rest up and he was fitted for a knee brace. If he cannot play or has to miss time due to his injury, this could spell the end for Philly.

Bottom Line:The Capitals are on fire right now and hot teams tend to do well in the playoffs. However, they do not have much experience and while there are many question marks about both squads, I see this going the distance with the Flyers moving on to the second round. Flyers win in 7.

#4 New Jersey Devils vs. #5 New York Rangers

A classic rivalry between division foes. The Rangers won the season series 7-1 with four games going to overtime or a shootout. The only Devils win came in their final meeting with home ice on the line on April 6 and it was in the shootout.

Why The Devils Win: Defense, defense defense. There's a saying that goes "Defense wins championships." The Devils took this saying and have taken it to levels not forseen by the author of the quote.

Their trap system has won them three Stanley Cups and numerous division titles and the like. Combine that with hall-of-fame goaltender Martin Brodeur and their boring style of play makes them a tough team to knock out.

They have the experience and grit that is so valuable at this time of year and could be poised to make another long playoff run.

Why They Don't Win: Utter lack of offense. Patrick Elias, Brian Gionta and Zach Parise are the only guys I'd be worried about if I'm the Rangers. Shut that line down, score three goals and the game is over. Sounds simple enough right?

Eventually the lack of scoring depth on this team will catch up to them and it will be good night. The first team that can get the Devils into an up tempo style of play and force them to actually play something that resembles hockey, will knock them out.

Onto the Rangers:

Why They Win: It finally looks as if the Rangers have worked out the early-midseason kinks and have started to gel. The offseason recruits of Chris Drury and Scott Gomez haven't exactly lived up to their $7+ million contracts, but Jaromir Jagr is on fire lately, scoring 5 goals over the last two weeks and netting 8 points.

We've also seen Henrik Lundqvist take control of a playoff series and has big a major reason why the Rangers are even in the playoffs in the first place. Lundqvist went 37-24-9 with 10 shutouts and a 2.24 GAA and .912 save percentage.

Why They Don't Win: What pops out at me the most is the defense. Marek Malik is one of the worst defensemen I've ever seen and when I heard rumors that GM Glenn Sather was looking for a top-4 d-man in return for Malik at the deadline, I needed a new pair of pants from laughing so hard.

He's one of those guys you love to play against because you know if you pressure him at all he'll screw up in some way that gives your team an edge. For example on April 6 against the Devils he crashed into Lundqvist as a shot was coming in. Lundqvist goes to protect himself and the Rangers playoff hopes and the puck goes right into the net.

Earlier this season in Boston in a tie game with 8 seconds left in the third period, Malik has it behind his net with no Bruin player pressuring him. Instead of sitting on it behind the net to get to overtime, he decides to fire a long outlet pass that gets picked off by a streaking Bruin who then gets two glorious chances on Lundqvist who once again had to bail out the Ranger defense.

Bottom Line: The Rangers are capable of slowing a game down and have proven that they can beat the Devils. They can also easily shut down the one scoring threat that the Devils have and come out on top in a long series. Rangers win in 6.